Before I even begin this I want to make it clear that this is my opinion of things to come based on information available to me right now, at the time of this writing. As with all things political those points of information will have changed or been altered by sun-up. In light of that fact I reserve the right to amend the forthcoming opinion at any time to reflect new and constantly updating intelligence.
Fred Hof, President Obama’s former point man in Syria who was elevated to the rank of Ambassador in March of 2012, now well known for resigning his post just 2 short weeks after the murder of Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans in Benghazi, Libya, now says that President Obama’s response to Syria’s alleged use of chemical weapons was “strategically appalling” and insists that the current Russian proposal floated by Secretary of State John Kerry on Monday is doomed for failure unless the Obama administration can show it has the legitimacy to produce a “credible threat of force,” – legitimacy which is in short supply on this topic barring another one of Obama’s “Rambo – Libya” type missions in which he goes it alone without congressional approval – a move I seriously doubt he’ll make prior to midterm elections next year considering the unpopularity of military strikes on Syria with his boss – the American Citizen.
Speaking to CNN on Tuesday as news broke of a possible resolution to the crisis, Hof seemed doubtful:
“Diplomacy is not possible without the credible use of force remaining on the table. Absent that, this Russian proposal will go away – absent that there is no prospect for any kind of a political negotiated solution. I think the president has to focus laser like on that particular message.”
Reports indicate that the American public is heavily opposed to military strikes on Syria. Different polling has the numbers between 60/40 against strikes right on up to 80/20 against – and those numbers are nearly mirrored in not just Congress, but also in the Democrat-majority-controlled Senate where Barack Obama has for 5 years enjoyed the full support of his c0-democrat lawmakers. On Syrian strikes however, a hypothetical vote count on the matter as of right now would end in certain defeat as even Obama’s most loyal supporters have voiced their dissent against military intervention there.
This explains why Senate majority leader Harry Reid stalled a vote on the senate floor and now why President Obama himself has postponed a congressional vote on the matter. They know they don’t have the votes and making such a thing official would undermine any remaining credibility for the use of force in Syria.
As for credibility I’m afraid the cat’s already out of the bag – the world, including Assad and Putin, has heard the voices of We The American People and they know the U.S. Congress and Senate are fully prepared to defeat President Obama’s plan to take military action. So, barring any subsequent future atrocities by the Assad regime or those sweetie pie Syrian opposition forces which may change and sway opinions – this bag is closed to cat-reinsertion.
Beyond that, this leaves any hopes of the “credible use of force” dead in the water as Assad knows President Obama would be walking a very thin line by taking action at this late stage without congressional approval.
According to Hof, minus the threat of force, Syria won’t comply with surrendering it’s chemical weapons stockpile, which it just admitted existed this week, but rather verbally agree to work with the United Nations in an attempt to buy more time and stall during long, drawn out negotiations which Kerry is set to begin in Geneva on Thursday.
I also remember something about “punishing the Assad regime for using chemical weapons on it’s own people” which this new UN sponsored plan to surrender WMD’s doesn’t address.
In short whats happened is very simple: facing certain defeat in Congress and the Senate after failing to sell American citizens, not to mention other nations of the world during the G20 summit, on the prospect of more war, President Obama has hit the eject button, represented by Kerry’s idea of surrendering the WMD’s, and is currently parachuting down onto a nice cushion of a fabricated diplomatic win.
Expect to begin hearing less and less about Syria in the weeks to come as talks stall out in Geneva and the entire matter from a U.S. perspective becomes yesterdays headlines which, after being altered in The Ministry of Truth(Obama’s media) will read something along the lines of “Obama averts war diplomatically.”
But don’t think for a minute that The United States will do the right thing and turn it’s back on the radical Islamic Syrian opposition forces. The Pentagon currently has upwards of 1,000 U.S. troops stationed in Jordan and one of their missions is to provide equipment, communications/weapons training and limited weaponry to the Free Syrian Army. Obama administration officials are hinting they’re prepared to further accelerate efforts to arm those rebel forces in their unified attempt to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.